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 School of Geography and the Environment

University of Oxford

 The Transport Studies Unit

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Part of the School of Geography and the Environment
Dr John Bates

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Dr John Bates

Academic Profile

Dr John Bates has worked as a mathematical economist, specializing in transport problems, for over 40 years. After a spell with the Mathematical Advisory Unit of the (then) Ministry of Transport, followed by the Operational Research Department of London Transport Executive, he has spent the last thirty-seven years working as an independent consultant. During his long career, he has worked with many universities on research projects, in particular the Transport Studies Unit at Oxford, and the Institute for Transport Studies at Leeds. In addition to his work experience, listed below, he has lectured extensively, both in the UK and in Holland, France, Finland, Germany, Switzerland, Scandinavia, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

In 1988 he was guest editor of an issue of the Journal of Transport Economics and Policy devoted to Stated Preference, and has acted as external examiner for the University of Cambridge and Lund University in Sweden. He has assisted the DRIVE office of the European Commission in the Technical Audit of various DRIVE projects, and has extensive additional experience in Peer Reviewing. In September 1993 he presented a series of 15 lectures on Transport Appraisal to the Helsinki University of Technology.

He has specialized in mathematical modelling, and has been at the forefront of transportation model development for the last forty years, with particular reference to travel demand, where he has contributed to, among others, the UK National Traffic Model, Regional Highway Traffic Model, the Dutch Long Distance Travel Model, a strategic model for Lothian Region and a model for the Assessment of Congestion Charging in London. He has been a leading figure in the development of stated preference techniques within the transport field, and has considerable expertise in evaluation methodology, in particular the valuation of time savings and reliability. In addition to his work in the UK, he has been an adviser to Value of Time studies in Sweden, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Denmark and the Netherlands. He is a member of the Technical Advisory Board for the National Transport Model (NTM), and has recently completed an assignment to produce High Level documentation for the model, available on the DfT Website.

Current Research

Major current interests are the Value of Time, freight studies, and the modelling and evaluation of travel time variability ("reliability"). Recent projects include:

  • Peer Review of the National Air Passenger Allocation Model
    This was a short piece of work which involved an assessment of a key modelling procedure developed for the Department for Transport.
  • Review of the Great Britain Freight Model
    Together with Ian Williams of WSP, this was a painstaking review of the Great Britain Freight Model for the DfT.
  • Lane tolls
    With Hugh Neffendorf, this was a high-profile piece of work to investigate the use of tolled lanes on existing motorways, which involved commissioning and auditing carefully specified runs on two existing large-scale models.
  • Surface access mode choice
    In a major modelling exercise carried out in connection with Stansted airport for SKM Consulting, he played the role of technical adviser on SP matters and the modelling of surface access mode choice. He has recently been advising on a further re-estimation of the model using new data.
  • Distributed Value of Time
    He has just completed a major exercise for estimating the distribution of the value of time for tolled motorway projects, using Stated Preference techniques, for SKM in Australia.
  • Value of Work and non-Work Travel Time
    In collaboration with ITS Leeds, he recently played a major role in a project to Revise the Value of Work and non-Work Travel Time, for DfT.
  • Guidance notes on Quality and Reliability
    He also assisted ITS with the provision of Guidance notes on Quality and Reliability, for the National Roads Authority, Republic of Ireland.
  • Journey Time Variability
    He was a key member of a team working on a major project for ITEA Division on Journey Time Variability, which concluded in 2003. This work has recently been revived, with substantially the same team, by Hyder Consulting, and he has just completed a major follow-up project for the Highways Agency.
  • Tyne and Wear Transport Planning Model (TPM)
    He provided modelling guidance on an ongoing basis to Jacobs Consultancy in connection with a major modelling study for Tyne and Wear.
  • Swedish National Freight Model
    From 2002 till 2008 he was a key advisor on the way forward for the development of a national freight model (SAMGODS) for the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis (SIKA) and the Norwegian National Transport Plan.
  • Micro-time-shifting (Peak spreading)
    He has been advising Mott Macdonald on the implementation of a model (HADES-B) to predict micro time-shifting, based on his previous research in this area. The model is being developed as part of the DfT's DIADEM suite.

Selected Publications

His recent publications include: